US Tariffs Deal Major Blow to Florence, the Most Affected Province in Italy

Florence is the Italian province hit hardest by the new U.S. tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, according to an analysis by Il Sole 24 Ore based on the latest quarterly data from Istat. In the first quarter of 2025, exports to the United States accounted for 26.9% of all foreign sales from the Florentine area—far above the national average.

This strong trade link translates into significant vulnerability: with a 30% tariff applied to U.S.-bound goods, Florence records an estimated loss of €580 million in just three months, the highest figure among all Italian provinces.

The reason lies in the structure of the local economy. Florence is home to a dense network of small and medium-sized enterprises specializing in high-value-added sectors such as fashion, leather goods, jewelry, and precision mechanics—industries with a long-standing presence in the U.S. market. In recent years, food and wine exports have also played an increasingly important role, further deepening ties with American consumers.

However, earlier projections by the Florence Chamber of Commerce may have underestimated the scale of the impact. In mid-July, the Chamber estimated potential losses of just over €1 billion for the entire Tuscany region if the U.S. tariffs were implemented. The new Istat-based analysis suggests that Florence alone could account for more than half of that amount in just one quarter, indicating that the local economic exposure may be even greater than previously expected.

Unlike other major export provinces such as Milan, which is more geographically diversified, or Trieste, which is closely linked to port logistics, Florence’s economy is uniquely exposed to shifts in the U.S. trade landscape. Even provinces like L’Aquila and Frosinone, where the share of U.S. exports is even higher (83.5% and 28.5% respectively), suffer smaller losses in absolute terms.

Lower tariffs would ease the impact—15% tariffs would cut potential losses by half, and 10% tariffs by two-thirds—but the underlying vulnerability remains: Florence’s international success, especially in luxury, artisanal products, and agri-food exports, makes it particularly sensitive to protectionist measures.

At the opposite end of the spectrum are provinces with weaker export sectors or limited ties to the U.S., such as Enna, Caltanissetta, and Crotone. In Enna, for example, the estimated loss in the first quarter amounts to just over €207,000.

The data confirms Florence’s global reach—but also its growing exposure to the risks of international trade tensions.

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