Tuscany Faces Over €1 Billion in Potential Losses from US Tariffs

The Florence Chamber of Commerce has sounded the alarm over the potential economic impact of new U.S. tariffs, warning that duties as high as 30% could cost local businesses more than €1 billion in lost exports.

Tuscany’s economy—particularly that of the Florence metropolitan area—relies heavily on international trade, with the United States being a top destination. Each year, Florence province exports goods worth approximately €25 billion, more than €6 billion of which are destined for the U.S. This makes Florence the second-largest Italian province for exports to the American market, after Milan.

According to data from the Chamber’s research center, when a 20% tariff was previously under discussion earlier this year, projected losses for Florence-based exports were already estimated at €800 million. A 30% tariff could raise the loss to well over €1 billion, with serious implications for local employment.

One major area of concern is the pharmaceutical industry, which represents around 50% of Florence’s exports to the U.S. It remains unclear whether this sector will be directly affected by the proposed tariffs, but any disruption could deal a serious blow to one of the region’s most valuable industrial sectors.

Other high-risk sectors include mechanical engineering, fashion, and agri-food products—especially wine. The U.S. remains the largest market for premium Tuscan wine, and any tariff increase could significantly reduce its competitiveness abroad.

There are also concerns about the ripple effects on tourism. American travelers may be less inclined to visit Europe due to the rising costs of imported goods in the U.S. and a weakening dollar, which has lost about 10–15% of its value. In Florence, tourist numbers are still down by 13.3% compared to pre-Covid levels.

According to mid-year projections, 6.3 million tourists are expected in the first half of 2025, down from 7.3 million in the same period of 2019. Real-time credit card transaction data shows a 23.7% decline in spending in the region so far this year, prompting the Chamber to revise its year-end tourism forecasts downward.

In response, the Chamber of Commerce is working to help local businesses diversify their export markets. It has expanded its ExportHub Days, connecting Tuscan companies with international buyers—particularly from Asia, including China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, and Taiwan. A recent event hosted business representatives from Kyoto.

Additional funding is also being offered to support local firms in attending international trade fairs and to join a business delegation traveling to Tunisia this November.

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