Italy expects further tourism growth in 2026

Italy could receive around 141.2 million tourist arrivals in 2026, up 2.1% compared with the previous year, according to forecasts by tourism research institute Demoskopika released by ANSA on Wednesday.

The estimates also project 478.6 million overnight stays nationwide, a smaller but still positive increase of 0.4% year-on-year.

64.8 million Italian tourists to travel within the Country

One of the main trends highlighted in the report is the return of domestic demand after a weaker period for Italian travellers. Demoskopika expects nearly 64.8 million Italian tourists to travel within the country in 2026, generating more than 213 million overnight stays.

For Florence and Tuscany, the recovery of Italian tourism could help support travel outside the traditional international peak periods, particularly in art cities, spa towns and smaller countryside destinations that depend heavily on seasonal flows.

International tourism is also expected to remain strong. More than 76 million foreign visitors are forecast to travel to Italy next year, with overseas markets accounting for over 55% of total overnight stays.

Florence remains one of Italy’s main international tourism hubs, especially for visitors from the United States, northern Europe and Asia, while Tuscany continues to attract a mix of cultural, food-and-wine and rural tourism.

Tourism spending could reach €132.7 billion

The report suggests that tourism spending could reach €132.7 billion in 2026, a 4% increase compared with 2025. However, Demoskopika noted that higher prices — especially for energy — may continue to affect transport costs and holiday-related spending.

According to preliminary estimates cited from Istat, Italy’s national statistics agency, inflation for 2026 is expected to average 2.4%, while prices for non-regulated energy products could rise by 7.9%.

Higher transport and energy costs could have a direct impact on tourism businesses in Tuscany, where accommodation, mobility and short-term rental prices have already risen significantly in recent years.

The forecasts also indicate a gradual extension of the tourism season beyond the traditional summer peak.

The new StagioMetro index

Demoskopika’s new “StagioMetro” index, designed to measure the concentration of tourism flows during the year, suggests that Italy is seeing a more balanced distribution of visitors across different months. The share of overnight stays concentrated between June and September is expected to fall to 56.9%, while spring and autumn periods are gaining weight.

That trend is particularly relevant for Florence and Tuscany, where local authorities and tourism operators have increasingly tried to promote off-season travel in order to reduce overcrowding during the busiest months and distribute visitor flows more evenly across the year.

Researchers said the shift could help reduce pressure on overcrowded destinations and provide more stable activity for tourism businesses outside the summer season.

They also argued that future growth will require better transport connections, incentives for off-season travel and stronger accessibility for less congested destinations.

A new promotional campaign

Tourism minister Gianmarco Mazzi described the forecasts as encouraging for the sector, pointing to the growth of domestic tourism and the broader distribution of visitor flows across the year.

Speaking during the presentation of Italy’s Blue Flag beach awards, Mazzi also said that international instability could push more European travellers to choose destinations closer to home, potentially benefiting Italy and Mediterranean destinations considered relatively easy to reach from other parts of Europe.

The tourism ministry and ENIT, Italy’s national tourism board, also launched a new promotional campaign titled Welcome to the Dream, Welcome to Italia, aimed at European and international markets. The campaign initially focuses on Calabria, Sardinia and Sicily, the regions affected by Cyclone Harry earlier this year.

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