Italy records hottest summer since 1950 as rain set to end Tuscany’s September heat

Italy has recorded its hottest summer since comparable records began in 1950, with the national average temperature reaching 24.3°C between June and August, according to an analysis by the Institute for Bioeconomy of the National Research Council (CNR-IBE).

The figure surpasses the previous record of 23.6°C set during the exceptionally hot summer of 2003. The calculation covers the entire Italian territory, including mountainous areas, and is based on ERA5-Land data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

August was particularly unusual. Italy recorded an average temperature of 25.6°C during the month, 3.5°C above the 1991-2020 average and one degree above the previous August record, set in 2024.

CNR researcher Lorenzo Arcidiaco said the data also show that July and August 2026 were, for the first time, consecutively the hottest on record. Every month between January and August was warmer than the corresponding month in 2025, raising the possibility that 2026 could eventually become Italy’s hottest year since 1950.

Tuscany also hit by exceptional heat

Tuscany has been among the regions affected by the prolonged heat. Regional weather consortium LaMMA reported earlier this summer that July 2026 was the hottest July recorded in Tuscany since its regional series began in 1955, and possibly the hottest for several centuries.

The summer has included repeated periods of very high temperatures in Florence. During one of the most intense spells in late June, the city remained under the highest-level red heat warning for 12 consecutive days.

The latest spell has extended summer-like conditions well into September. On Monday, September 7, LaMMA recorded temperatures around 36°C in Florence, while Prato reached around 34°C and several other inland Tuscan cities were above 30°C.

Florence is expected to remain very hot on Tuesday, September 8, with LaMMA forecasting a maximum of around 35°C and a perceived temperature reaching 37°C during the afternoon.

Rain and much cooler weather from Wednesday

The prolonged heat should finally begin to break on Wednesday as an Atlantic disturbance reaches Tuscany.

In Florence, temperatures are forecast to fall to a maximum of around 31°C on Wednesday, with increasing cloud and a chance of rain during the evening. Conditions are expected to change much more markedly on Thursday, when LaMMA forecasts thunderstorms and temperatures around 20-21°C.

Rain could continue into Friday morning, when Florence is forecast to start the day at around 18°C before temperatures recover to approximately 25°C during the afternoon.

The change will therefore bring an abrupt end to the latest heatwave, with daytime temperatures in Florence potentially dropping by more than 10°C between Tuesday and Thursday.

The cooler weather comes after an extraordinary summer across Italy. According to the CNR analysis reported by ANSA, around 70% of the country experienced temperature anomalies of more than 1°C between January and August, while around 40% recorded anomalies exceeding 2°C.

The effects have also been visible in the Alps. The Marmolada glacier has retreated by 23 metres since the beginning of 2026, three times the retreat recorded in 2025, according to measurements from a glaciological survey coordinated by the University of Padua’s Museum of Geography.

For Florence, the approaching rain marks a significant change after another stretch of temperatures more typical of midsummer than early September. LaMMA’s current outlook indicates more moderate temperatures after the disturbance passes, bringing relief from the prolonged summer heat.

(Cover photo Image by Rupert Kittinger-Sereinig from Pixabay)

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